donderdag 16 september 2004

We do precision guesswork

Science Blog - 'Killer bacteria' more common than expected
''Some of these 11 countries, like Italy and Romania, initially claimed that they had almost no severe GAS infections whatsoever. But once they started looking, they found a huge number of cases. In Sweden there are some 300-400 severe GAS infections every year. In relation to population size, the incidence is roughly the same in the rest of Scandinavia, Great Britain, and the Czech Republic, which also have well-functioning systems for reporting these things. If we assume that this is the true incidence rate, then the enlarged EU should have 18-20,000 cases per year of severe streptococcal infections.''

''We'll probably never arrive at the exact figure. But there are also a large number of cases we never find out about,'' says Claes Schalén. ''We therefore hope that the study will lead to pan-European monitoring of these infections, and to more uniform laboratory methods.''

The study also shows that not merely the number of cases but also the number of different types of bacteria is greater than previously recorded. In the past scientists have estimated that there are some 50 types of GAS. Now the number has reached nearly 200, and new forms are turning up all the time. Moreover, different types often dominate different countries.